Kondratyev
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Letters    by Eric Von Baranov

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Mar. 7, 2004

Witch Hunts We All Know and Love


Coming late to the game the Salem Witch Hunts of the 1690s ended abruptly in 1693 when the Mayor's wife was accused of witchcraft. It is ok to persecute the helpless and disenfranchised, but when hysteria carries too far the ringleaders become suspect and feed on themselves. In a litmus test of purity, there is none so pure.

Hearing the Martha Stewart verdict today, reminds me of the various witch-hunts over history. The solidification of social values during the "down grade" meets new challenges and finally exhausts itself as growth flowers. Martha is the victim of two social and political forces - the exhaustion of Marxism and the emerging of new technology. Let's deal with each of these in a "Long Wave" historic context.

The Death Throes of Marxism. We may not immediately associate the rise of the new Conservatives in the US with the ending of Marxism. Marxism's impact on the social and political fabric of the world should not be underestimated. Communism with its close relative Socialism is the greatest social experiment ever conducted.

The reaction to rising Marxism was the Conservative or Anti-Communist movement in the US. The "Cold War" defined the rules of engagement and McCarthy looked under every rock attempting to uncover a Communist conspiracy that never existed. It was no accident McCarthy's search led him to Hollywood and the writers for the new technology - TV. TV has a powerful impact on shaping social thought and those fearing a sweep of Communist wanted foremost to control the media. Today's FCC battle over cleaning up the media by censoring Janet Jackson and Howard Stern is simply an artifact of the initial battle.

Coming Full Circle. Recognizing cycles as a part of life is more than identifying repetitive behavior. A cycle is not repetition of an event, but the pathway from the birth to death. Just as all life is finite, events and their resulting harmonics have a life span. Soviet Communism has died and with it must come a change in perception. The US, as seen in the last Presidential election, is split between those who see good in Socialism and those that see it as the root of all evil. The intensity of the split is indicative of the shifting landscape of perception. As trends come to an end there is a burst of activity in an attempt to recapture the "glory" of what is past. In fact, the final reactionary burst helps transition society on to the next stage. Excesses become obvious to most and a trend is put to rest. Ashcroft declaring war on the Soviets and draping the statue of Justice's bare breast is the perfect metaphor for the ending of a trend.

Technology and Change. As I show in my Equilibrium Model social change is driven by innovation. Innovation creates displacement and as such forces social values to change. The freedom and mobility of the Automobile greatly altered 1890 Victorian values. While social norms became more conservative after the Great Depression values never became as restrictive and technology continued to contribute to the diffusion of the family unit. Technology had the same impact on Soviet Communism. While the Conservative Right claims responsibly for defeating the Soviets and winning the "Cold War", following the Cuban Missile Crisis there was very little chance of escalating to nuclear war. CIA projections aside Soviet Communism fell under the weight of technology, which allowed information to filter through to the Russian street.

The Evil Corporate Executive. I find it ironic politicians attempt to define morality for corporate executives. Politicians who regularly take bribes, lie to start wars and have affairs with blue dresses are not paragons of virtue. Further complicating matters is a Justice Department and SEC staffed with graduates from Socialist Educational systems. These "Nader" style crusaders prey upon anyone who is extraordinarily successful in the name of protecting the small guy. All witch-hunts seem to start with the high moral goal of either protecting the children or the disadvantaged - altruism run amok. Martha Stewart is the perfect poster child for what is wrong with society. She is an independent self made woman, a successful corporate executive making use of new technology and is guilty of subtleties few can understand.

Unburdening the Corporation. When my children were young I read them the age old story of the "Little Red Hen". The burdening of the means of production bankrupted the Soviets creating an all consuming economy. Pollution reached extraordinary levels only exceeded by scientific sites in Antarctica and population growth became negative. In any system, regulation is necessary to control excess and foster competition. What is emerging as a social value in the US and elsewhere in the world is recognition of wealth produced by the corporation. Such a social shift strikes a new direction away from the Communism and anti-Communism battle. In the vacuum of change comes a new paradigm that will drive social change for the next one hundred and fifty years. While the Martha Stewart case may not be the end of the current witch-hunt, she is a signpost of change. As more and more visibility is created people will demand new ways of valuing social contribution eventually unburdening the corporation.

Copyright © 1974-2007 Kondratyev Wave Letters by Eric Von Baranov, Sausalito, CA USA