Education

Educated as an engineer, the Yankee entrepreneurial spirit runs deep in Eric’s genes. From selling Christmas cards and TV Guides door to door at 9 to mowing lawns as a teen to fund college tuition, Eric has always strived for financial independence. During college Eric worked such diverse jobs as washing dishes, rental agent, assistant machinist, and transformer tester.

Following graduation Eric pursued a career in Aerospace as a test engineer working for United Technologies, Maremont and Rohr - the first builder of BART railway cars. After gaining sales experience selling life insurance, reaching the millionaire’s club the first year, Eric transitioned to selling high tech electronic components for TRW. In 1970, engineering employment fell apart. Sales of electronic components peaking in November 1969 declined precipitously into the spring of 1970.

The 1970 recession came on quickly and was the most severe recession since the great depression. Stresses of a costly unwinnable Vietnam War coupled with social unrest brought economic growth to a screeching halt. 1970 was also the year Eric first learned of the Kondratyev Theory.

Perhaps a flaw in Eric’s genes is responsible for his insatiable desire to understand how things work. Even as a toddler, disassembling anything that could be taken apart, Eric’s curiosity drove his education and world view. Today, if something is broken, Eric has a compulsion to fix it. Such examination extends beyond the mechanical to include financial and social systems. The destruction of myth and superstition and the application of logic and reason are critical in Eric’s examination of social trends and investment markets. Eric, an accomplished Journeyman level mechanic and home builder, currently spends time restoring classic Porsches and working on his Marin County home.

The Great 1960s Bull Market

Entering Hayden Stone Brokerage at the top of the Charter Oil building in San Diego in 1970 one sank knee deep into plush red pile carpet. Dark rich mahogany wainscoting gave way to red velvet walls. Dim lighting caused a pause to those coming in from a sunny day. The front desk, armed with attractive well dressed women, created an almost bordello atmosphere. Every calculation was designed to intimidate giving an impression an investor could trust Hayden Stone to make them money. Outwardly there was little to suggest Hayden Stone would be bankrupt, sold and carved into pieces before the end of the year. These are the conditions at the end of the great 1960s bull market.

Hayden Stone like most brokerage firms operated on auto pilot. Who was to question their methods? Indeed who was to question a market that always goes up? Who was to question the indestructible American Industrial Machine that grows year after year? This is America – before Kent State, the crushing defeat of Vietnam, the Energy Crisis and multiculturalism. The US is king of the world. It was at Hayden Stone, Eric met his mentor Victor.

Trading Commodities

Eric's broker Jim, introduced him to futures trading by losing 70% of account value the first two weeks. With no job in an escalating Aerospace recession, Eric bet everything on commodities. If money can be lost so easily surely it can be made just as fast. Young people should always be optimistic. In examining commodity trends Eric discovered most forms of technical analysis to be flawed or helpful only in retrospect. To anticipate trends Eric turned to cycles. Shorter cycles worked for a while and then would, without warning, disappear. To compensate for these failures Eric studied market history looking for longer cycles to explain unexpected and abrupt changes.

Each day traders, investors and pensioners gathered at Hyden Stone to worship the "Nifty Fifty". Each trade on the board registered an audible click. Like Pavlov’s famous dog traders rode a roller coaster of fear and euphoria as the fortunes of the day unfolded. By May 1970 the Dow Jones Industrails had fallen by over 30% and the US was locked into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Fear permeated the walls.

Eric's Mentor

One day, an older gentleman, named Victor, took an interest in Eric's work. Having no secrets Eric carefully explained the colored lines on the paper showing the relationship of cattle spreads. Victor thought for a while and asked – “But does it make any sense? When all things are considered does the information make any sense? You are trying anticipate the future from the past. The factors creating past price changes may no longer exist. The future is unknown but underlying trends in society drive future events and determine how markets will react. The job of the trader is to ferret out imbalances and position yourself in front of a long term trend. The unexpected will always produce the most dramatic price changes because they are not yet discounted by the market." Thus began a four year association and education about the "long wave" culminating in Eric's publishing The Kondratyev Theory Letter. Over the next ten years the investment service grew providing information to a select group of international and instituional clients.

Investment Expertise

Over the years Eric has started, run and sold a number of successful small businesses. Pressures of a new family caused the closure of the Kondratyev Newsletter in mid 1984. Eric's engineering background and early interest in computers led to a successful consulting business with the Who's Who of Silicon Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area. Using excess funds Eric transitioned between the stock market and real estate accumulating enough wealth to retire in 1998 at the age of 52. Today Eric’s investment expertise extends to real estate, stocks, currencies and commodities. The web based Kondratyev news service covers major trading markets as well as social and political trends. Money is a nice thing to have but it should not become an obsession. The most valuable commodity in life is the unobstucted freedom to pursue ones dreams. Today Eric lives in sunny California with his partner of 30+ years and has two independant thinking grown children.