Jan. 22, 2000
Changing Energy Paradigms
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Overview
Past Cycles
The Age of Steam
The Age of Oil
The Age of Electricity
Cycle Consolidation
Interleaving
Compounding
Nuclear Power
Natural Gas
Solar Power
Wind Energy
Fuel Cells
Bio-Mass
Fusion
The Future
The Ball Game
1st Base
2nd Base
3rd Base
4th Base
Home Run
Conclusion
Reference
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Overview
The growth of the economy in the Kondratyev Cycle has been closely associated with an energy source. The last three cycles have witnessed massive increases in the availability of cheap energy. Each breakthrough has opened up exploration and spawned innovation. A typical modern household uses more energy a day than an entire village consumed in 1800. Indeed new energy sources have replaced servants and increased the standard of living. Where the middle class has washers, cars and home entertainment systems, yesteryear a lord of the manor required an entire staff that lived a minimal existence.
The energy crisis of the 1970's brought home to the industrialized world the importance of oil. An immediate proliferation of alternative sources sprang up many subsidized by the government. None of these alternatives came close to providing the "bang for the buck" of oil.
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The "oil crisis" marked the end of the last Kondratyev Growth Period and sent the economy into the down grade. As is typical of the down grade "limits to growth", incremental innovation began to fill the gap caused by expensive oil. First cars from Europe and Japan displaced American "gas guzzlers". This was followed by changes in almost all industries. Utility companies became "Energy Companies" and preached conservation in place of capital improvements. Appliance manufacturers reduced energy consumption. Today energy conservation is a government mandate for most manufacturing firms. Few if any products have escaped the conservation trend over the past 25 years.
The question becomes; Is the world again approaching another "limit to growth"? If true, the projections that we have made for the next Growth Period are at best optimistic and at worst fantasy.
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