Paper

Kondratyev

Theory

Letters by Eric Von Baranov

Aug. 21, 1998

Trends in U.S. Presidents

Overview
Roles
The Protector
The Statesman

Overview

Politics plays a major roll in the repetitive nature of the "long wave". While the first Kondratyev Economic Law states clearly that government is a lagging factor in the course of economic events, the selection of leaders reflects the general mood of the public. This is very true in a democracy, but applies to even dictatorships and kingdoms where freedom of choice is severely limited. Here we examine the roll of the leaders in relation to each cycle in the U.S. Beyond tracking liberal vs.conservative we look at the role that each leader plays in the course of the long wave irrespective of party

Some very interesting parallels develop between cycles that allow us to make future projections in the direction of the world and politics. When first starting this research we were dubious as to its value. The nature of the country and political concerns have changed so much over the past 200 years that we did not expect see anything more than fiscal policies reflected by the "long wave". As more and more information was uncovered we discovered that Presidents take on very special roles that can be identified clearly with each phase. In fact these roles are progressive and help support the transition of each phase to the next. Correctly label the president at a time and you can also determine what events will follow.